OptencisThe US jobs report, often called NFP for “non-farm payrolls”, is published once a month, usually on the first Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time. It says how many jobs the US economy created, how many people are unemployed and how fast wages are rising. It is one of the releases that move the dollar, bond yields, Wall Street and gold the most. This page explains how to read it and why markets react.
What the report contains
The report, called the Employment Situation, is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the previous month. It combines two surveys:
- Non-farm payrolls: the number of jobs created or lost over the month, outside farming, from a survey of businesses. This is the headline figure.
- The unemployment rate: the share of the labour force looking for work, from a survey of households.
- Average hourly earnings: how fast wages are rising, a key input for inflation.
- Revisions: the figures of the two previous months are updated, sometimes by a lot.
How to read it
As with every release, what counts is the gap between the actual figure and the forecast. Our economic calendar shows the forecast and the previous figure for each release. Three points to check together:
- Payrolls against the forecast: a large gap, in either direction, is the main source of surprise.
- The revisions: a strong month can lose its meaning if the two previous months are revised down.
- Wages and unemployment: fast-rising wages can worry markets about inflation, even when job creation is moderate.
When these signals point in different directions, the first reaction often reverses within minutes.
Why markets react
The jobs report shapes what the Federal Reserve will do: the Fed’s mandate includes maximum employment, and a tight labour market can push up inflation.
- A stronger report than expected: markets expect rates to stay high for longer. Bond yields and the dollar often rise, and gold often falls.
- A weaker report than expected: rate cuts become more likely, and the opposite moves often follow.
The minutes after 8:30 a.m. New York time on report day are among the most volatile of the month, especially on USD pairs, gold and US indices. On short durations, a move can reverse several times in a few minutes.
The other figures on employment
- ADP employment report: an estimate of private-sector jobs, usually published on the Wednesday before the official report.
- Weekly jobless claims: every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits.
- Job openings (JOLTS): the number of open positions, published about a month later.
Latest articles on jobs
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Frequently asked questions
When is the NFP released?
Usually on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time, for the previous month. The date sometimes moves, for example around holidays: check our economic calendar.
What is a good NFP number?
There is no fixed threshold: markets compare the figure with what economists expected and with the trend of the previous months. A “good” number for the economy can still push some markets down if it changes rate expectations.
Why does the jobs report move gold?
Because it changes expectations about US interest rates and the dollar. A strong report often supports the dollar and weighs on gold, which pays no interest, but the reaction is not automatic.
What are the revisions?
Updates of the two previous months, once more businesses have answered the survey. They can change the picture as much as the new figure.