Optencis
This week brings two interest rate decisions, from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. Forecasts point to a rate increase at both meetings. The week ends with the US jobs report and Canadian employment data on Friday, and the US Congressional elections on Tuesday add a political event to a busy calendar.
RBA decision on Tuesday
The RBA announces its decision on 3 November at 03:30 UTC. The cash rate is the interest rate it sets, and the forecast is 4.85%, up from 4.60%. The rate statement and the Monetary Policy Statement come out at the same time, with new economic projections, and the press conference follows at 04:30 UTC.
The Australian dollar is the currency most directly affected, and AUD/USD often moves around the announcement. Markets also read the statement and the press conference for clues about future meetings.
Bank of England decision on Thursday
The BoE publishes its decision on 5 November at 12:00 UTC. The forecast puts Bank Rate at 4.00%, up from 3.75%. The calendar shows a forecast vote split of 7-0-2 among the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee, against 3-0-6 at the previous meeting.
The Monetary Policy Report, with the BoE's updated forecasts, comes out at the same time, and Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 12:30 UTC. The vote split matters as much as the decision itself, because it shows how divided policymakers are. The pound, and GBP/USD in particular, is the main market to follow.
US jobs report and other US data
The US jobs report is released on 6 November at 13:30 UTC. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 63,000 after 29,000 the month before, and the unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are forecast up 0.3% month on month, after 0.1%.
Earlier in the week, the ISM manufacturing index on 2 November is forecast at 54.7 (previous 54.5). JOLTS job openings on 3 November are forecast at 7.11 million (previous 7.08 million). The ISM services index on 4 November is forecast at 54.9, the same as last time, and weekly jobless claims on 5 November at 197,000 (previous 194,000). On Friday at 15:00 UTC, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is forecast at 47.8 (previous 46.3), with inflation expectations last at 4.7%.
The US Congressional elections take place on 3 November. These releases and the election results concern the US dollar, US indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and gold.
Read alsoBank of England preview: Bank Rate forecast at 4.00%, up from 3.75%Euro area and Swiss inflation, central bank speakers
The euro area flash inflation estimate comes out on 4 November at 10:00 UTC. Headline inflation is forecast at 4.0% year on year, up from 3.8%, while core inflation, which leaves out volatile energy and food prices, is forecast steady at 2.5%. The figures matter for the European Central Bank and for EUR/USD.
In Switzerland, consumer prices are forecast flat at 0.0% month on month on 3 November, the same as the previous reading. Several central bank heads speak during the week: Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel on 5 November at 12:40 UTC, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde the same day at 18:00 UTC, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on 6 November at 16:00 UTC.
Canada and New Zealand
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks on 3 November at 16:00 UTC and on 5 November at 15:30 UTC. Canada's annual budget is released on 5 November at 21:00 UTC. On 6 November at 13:30 UTC, employment is forecast to rise by 14,500 after a fall of 68,300, with unemployment seen steady at 6.5%. The Ivey PMI follows at 15:00 UTC, forecast at 57.7 (previous 58.2). These releases concern the Canadian dollar and USD/CAD.
In New Zealand, quarterly employment data on 3 November at 21:45 UTC are forecast to show 0.4% job growth (previous 0.5%) and unemployment at 5.5% (previous 5.6%). Parliamentary elections are scheduled on 6 November, which keeps the New Zealand dollar in focus.
Sources: ForexFactory.
