Bank of England preview: Bank Rate forecast at 4.00%, up from 3.75%

The Bank of England (BoE) announces its next interest rate decision on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC. Bank Rate currently stands at 3.75%, and the economic calendar forecast is 4.00%, which would be an increase of 0.25 percentage points. This is an expectation, not a done deal, and the final call rests with the bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The decision expected

Bank Rate, the interest rate the BoE sets, is 3.75% after the previous decision. The consensus forecast in the economic calendar is 4.00%. If the forecast proves right, UK borrowing costs would move higher. The decision is set by the MPC through a vote, so the result is not certain until it is published.

What the bank published recently

The BoE's recent publications give few direct clues on rates. On 28 October 2026 it released the Remit for the Monetary Policy Committee for October 2026, the government's letter setting out the objectives the MPC works towards. Other releases covered non-monetary topics: minutes of the Court of Directors meeting held on 17 September, an approach to tokenised collateral in central clearing, and proposed reforms for credit unions published on 3 November.

The data that matter for this meeting

Recent activity data has been firm. As we reported, the UK flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 in October, beating the 51.8 forecast and marking the fastest private-sector growth since February. A reading above 50 signals expansion. Alongside activity, the MPC also weighs inflation and labour market data when setting rates, as its main task is keeping inflation under control.

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What to watch on the day

The decision and the policy statement are due at 12:00 UTC, followed by Governor Andrew Bailey at 12:30 UTC. Beyond the rate itself, traders will look at the vote split of the nine-member MPC and at any hints in the statement about future meetings. As a general mechanism, higher rates tend to support a currency, but a decision, vote or message that differs from expectations can trigger sharp moves in GBP pairs, in either direction.

Sources: ForexFactory, Bank of England.