Reserve Bank of Australia preview: cash rate forecast at 4.85%, up from 4.60%
Reserve Bank of AustraliaInterest ratesAUD/USD
The RBA announces its rate decision on 3 November 2026 at 03:30 UTC. The calendar forecast is 4.85%, above the current 4.60%.
Optencis Newsroom1 Nov 20262 min read
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its next interest rate decision on 3 November 2026 at 03:30 UTC. The economic calendar forecast puts the cash rate at 4.85%, compared with 4.60% now. That forecast is an expectation, not a fact, and the bank has the final word.
The decision expected
The cash rate is the policy rate, the interest rate the RBA sets to steer borrowing costs in Australia. It currently stands at 4.60%. The calendar forecast of 4.85% means the market consensus points to an increase at this meeting. The decision is marked as high importance for the Australian dollar (AUD).
What the bank published recently
The only recent RBA publication in our data is an announcement on the appointment of a Chief Risk Officer, dated 14 October 2026. This is an internal staffing matter rather than a policy signal. For hints about the rate path, traders will rely mainly on the statement and the press conference on decision day.
Why this meeting matters
When a central bank raises its policy rate, borrowing becomes more expensive for households and businesses. As a general mechanism, higher rates tend to support a currency, because they can make deposits and bonds in that currency more attractive. However, much of an expected move is often already reflected in prices before the announcement, so the reaction can depend on whether the outcome and the message differ from what markets anticipated.
First, the decision itself at 03:30 UTC: does the RBA move the cash rate to 4.85%, keep it at 4.60%, or choose another level? Second, the policy statement: its wording on inflation, growth and the outlook may give clues about future meetings. Third, the RBA press conference, scheduled about an hour after the decision, where the bank explains its choice and answers questions. Price moves around these moments can be fast, so volatility, meaning sharp and quick swings in prices, is common.
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