OptencisWhat moves the markets, right now 2 briefs in the last 7 days
The world, its causes and their effects on your assets
Each glowing point is a Wire brief, each ring one of our latest news stories. Arcs link a cause to its effects elsewhere in the world, when the sources say so. Hover or tap a point to read what happened, why, and what it touches.
The Wire brief
One news story, from the cause to the trade idea
The story on the left, open to everyone. The trade idea on the right, for members. Every brief stays in the archives with its result once the expiry has passed.
US advance GDP estimate and core PCE inflation due 29 October
The US advance GDP estimate is scheduled for 29 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC, with growth forecast at 3.2% quarter on quarter after 1.5% previously. Core PCE prices are due at the same time.
- Cause
It is the first official read of US growth for the quarter, arriving as markets weigh the next Federal Reserve decision.
- What happened
US advance GDP estimate and core PCE inflation due 29 October
- Impact
The figure could change how traders assess the outlook for US interest rates and the US dollar.
- Forecast
- 3.2%
- Previous
- 1.5%
Assets concerned
USDGBP/USDEUR/USDWhat could change the picture Core PCE inflation, jobless claims and income and spending data released at the same minute could shift the overall reading.
Sources: ForexFactory
Bank of England rate decision and MPC vote split, 5 November
The Bank of England announces its Bank Rate decision and MPC vote split on 5 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC. The forecast is a 7-0-2 split and a rate of 4.00%, against 3.75% and a 3-0-6 split last time.
- Cause
Market coverage describes traders as divided over the Bank of England's rate path ahead of an expected increase.
- What is expected
Bank of England rate decision and MPC vote split, 5 November
- Impact
The vote split and the new Monetary Policy Report could reshape expectations for the timing and size of later Bank of England decisions.
- Forecast
- 7-0-2
- Previous
- 3-0-6
Assets concerned
GBPGBP/USDEUR/GBPFTSE 100What could change the picture The guidance in the Monetary Policy Report and Summary, released at the same time, may weigh as much as the vote count itself.
Sources: ForexFactory
BoJ holds rate at 1.25%, sees underlying inflation at 2%
The Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote and judged that underlying inflation now sits at its 2% goal. It also sped up its ETF disposals to roughly ¥860 billion per year.
- Cause
Price pressures in Japan have built up to the point where the BoJ's gauges of underlying inflation now match its 2% target.
- What happened
BoJ holds rate at 1.25%, sees underlying inflation at 2%
- Impact
Traders reassess the chance of a BoJ rate increase at the December meeting; the yen firmed against the dollar after the decision, Bloomberg reported.
- BoJ policy rate (unchanged)
- 1.25%
- Board vote
- 8-1
- Underlying inflation per BoJ
- 2%
- New pace of ETF sales
- about ¥860 billion ($5.5 billion) a year
Assets concerned
JPYUSD/JPYNikkei 225What could change the picture Whether coming Japanese data and comments from BoJ officials back a December move, and how US news shapes the dollar side of yen pairs.
Sources: Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, ForexFactory
Archives
Every brief we have sent
One brief per news, kept for good: what happened, the cause, the effects, the trade idea and its result once scored. Filter by theme, search by country or asset.
Monthly record: share of scored ideas that went the right way at expiry
- November 2026—1 briefs · 0 right · 0 wrong
- October 202675%11 briefs · 3 right · 1 wrong
12 briefs
GB United Kingdom3 Nov · 12:02 UTCBank of England rate decision and MPC vote split, 5 NovemberCause: Market coverage describes traders as divided over the Bank of England's rate path ahead of an expected increase.GBPGBP/USDEUR/GBPFTSE 100UpcomingJP Japan30 Oct · 03:50 UTCBoJ holds rate at 1.25%, sees underlying inflation at 2%Cause: Price pressures in Japan have built up to the point where the BoJ's gauges of underlying inflation now match its 2% target.JPYUSD/JPYNikkei 225Not scored: close price not receivedUS United States27 Oct · 12:31 UTCUS advance GDP estimate and core PCE inflation due 29 OctoberCause: It is the first official read of US growth for the quarter, arriving as markets weigh the next Federal Reserve decision.USDGBP/USDEUR/USDNo trade: figure between the two thresholds
US United States26 Oct · 18:03 UTCUS Federal Reserve interest rate decision, 28 October 2026Cause: The decision comes as a selloff in AI-related stocks weighs on copper and emerging market shares ahead of the Fed meeting.USDEUR/USDS&P 500Nasdaq 100No trade: figure not confirmed in time
CA Canada26 Oct · 13:48 UTCBank of Canada interest rate decision and Monetary Policy ReportCause: Forecasts point to a 0.25 point increase from 2.25%, which would be a change in the central bank's policy setting.CADUSD/CADCAD/CHFNo trade: figure not confirmed in time
AU Australia26 Oct · 00:33 UTCAustralia monthly consumer price index release, 28 October 00:30 UTCCause: Monthly inflation data shapes expectations for the next policy decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia.AUD/USDAUDAUS 200No trade: figure not confirmed in time
GB United Kingdom23 Oct · 09:11 UTCUK October flash PMIs beat forecasts, composite at 53.1Cause: New orders picked up and firms added staff, while input costs rose on higher energy prices, according to S&P Global.GBPEUR/GBPFTSE 100Wrong direction
EU Euro area23 Oct · 08:14 UTCEuro area October flash PMIs miss forecasts as France contractsCause: Firms reported weaker demand amid rising costs, delayed customer decisions and political and fiscal uncertainty in France.EUR/USDEuro Stoxx 50DAXCAC 40Right direction
FR France22 Oct · 11:13 UTCFrench debt risk premium reaches euro zone crisis-era levelsCause: A broad move away from risk across global markets pushed money into German and US government bonds, putting French debt under strain.CAC 40French bondsBundEUR/USDNot scored: demo trade refused
SA Saudi Arabia22 Oct · 10:54 UTCHouthi strikes hit Saudi energy sites as US orders staff outCause: The Houthi group in Yemen keeps launching attacks on Saudi territory, and Washington cites this rising danger in its decision to pull non-essential staff.OilUSD/CADGulf stocksRight direction
FR France21 Oct · 09:44 UTCFrench 10-year yields reach 5%, highest since 2002Cause: Investors asked for a higher premium to hold French government debt as concerns over France's fiscal outlook grew.French bondsCAC 40EURNot scored: demo trade refused
GB United Kingdom20 Oct · 13:26 UTCUK consumer price inflation release, forecast 3.4% year on yearCause: Rising energy costs and a firm labour market keep attention on how fast UK prices are increasing.GBPGBP/USDEUR/GBPRight directionMarket-moving news, turned into a clear idea
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