UK inflation and wage data, Canadian consumer prices and a round of flash PMI surveys on Friday lead a week without a major central bank decision.
Optencis Newsroom19 Oct 20263 min read
The week of 19 to 24 October 2026 is built around inflation and business surveys rather than central bank meetings. The UK takes centre stage, with wage data, consumer prices forecast at 3.4% year on year and a speech by the Bank of England governor. Canadian and New Zealand inflation figures and Friday's flash PMI surveys complete the picture.
UK: wages, inflation and a speech by Bailey
The busiest calendar belongs to the UK. On Tuesday 20 October at 06:00 UTC, the Average Earnings Index, which tracks wage growth over three months compared with a year earlier, is forecast at 3.8% after 3.9%. On Wednesday 21 October at 06:00 UTC, the consumer price index (CPI) is the week's headline release: forecasters expect annual inflation of 3.4%, up from 3.1% in the previous reading.
The same day at 13:00 UTC, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak. Markets often listen for any comment on how the BoE reads the latest wage and price data, since inflation shapes its decisions on the policy rate, the interest rate it sets. On Friday 23 October at 06:00 UTC, UK retail sales are forecast at -0.2% month on month after 0.5%. These releases mainly concern the pound and GBP/USD.
Canada: consumer prices on Monday
Statistics Canada publishes its CPI figures on Monday 19 October at 12:30 UTC. Monthly inflation is forecast at 0.2% after -0.1% previously. The Bank of Canada (BoC) pays close attention to its core measures, which strip out volatile price swings: the median CPI is forecast unchanged at 2.0% year on year, the trimmed CPI at 1.9% and the common CPI at 2.6%.
Because forecasters expect the core measures to hold steady, any gap between the actual figures and these forecasts is what traders tend to watch. The data mainly concerns the Canadian dollar and USD/CAD.
Flash PMI surveys close the week
Friday 23 October brings early readings of business activity for October. France opens at 07:15 UTC, with manufacturing forecast at 50.6 after 50.3 and services at 50.8 after 51.4. Germany follows at 07:30 UTC, with manufacturing forecast at 53.5 after 53.8 and services at 52.6 after 52.9.
The UK surveys come at 08:30 UTC, with both manufacturing and services forecast at 51.8, against 52.0 and 51.7 previously. The US closes the series at 13:45 UTC, with manufacturing forecast at 55.5 after 57.0 and services at 58.0 after 58.7. A reading above 50 signals growth, so these surveys give an early view of the economy before official data. They concern the euro, the pound, the US dollar and indices such as the DAX and the S&P 500.
New Zealand publishes quarterly CPI on Wednesday 21 October at 21:45 UTC, with a forecast of 0.8% quarter on quarter after 1.5%. This figure mainly concerns the New Zealand dollar.
In the US, weekly unemployment claims on Thursday 22 October at 12:30 UTC are forecast at 200K after 199K. On Friday at 14:00 UTC, the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is forecast at 46.3, the same as the preliminary reading, while inflation expectations in the same survey were previously 4.7%. These releases concern the US dollar and US indices.
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