Optencis
This is a heavy week for central banks. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) all announce rate decisions between Wednesday and Friday, while the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are forecast to raise rates. US growth and inflation data, Australian inflation and the UK budget complete a busy calendar.
The Fed decides on Wednesday, then US GDP and inflation follow
The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday 28 October at 18:00 UTC, with the press conference at 18:30 UTC. The policy rate, the interest rate the central bank sets, is forecast to stay at 4.00%, unchanged from the previous meeting. When no change is expected, markets often focus on the statement and the press conference for hints about future moves.
On Thursday 29 October at 12:30 UTC, the first estimate of US GDP for the quarter is forecast at 3.2% quarter on quarter, against 1.5% previously. At the same time, the core PCE price index is forecast to rise 0.3% month on month, after 0.2%, and weekly jobless claims are forecast at 198K, after 194K. Earlier, on Tuesday at 14:00 UTC, the Conference Board consumer confidence index is forecast at 80.5, after 81.9. On Friday, the employment cost index is forecast at 0.8% quarter on quarter, after 0.9%. These releases mainly concern the US dollar and US indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
The ECB meets on Thursday, German data on Friday
The ECB publishes its decision on Thursday 29 October at 13:15 UTC, followed by the press conference at 13:45 UTC. The main refinancing rate is forecast to stay at 2.65%. Traders will look at the tone of the statement and the answers in the press conference for clues on the next steps.
On Friday 30 October, Germany releases preliminary inflation and growth figures. German CPI is forecast at 0.1% month on month, after 0.6%, and German GDP at 0.1% quarter on quarter, after 0.2%. These figures matter for the euro, EUR/USD and the DAX.
The BoJ decision and Tokyo inflation
The BoJ announces its decision early on Friday 30 October at 02:30 UTC, together with its quarterly Outlook Report, which contains its updated growth and inflation projections. The policy rate is forecast to remain below 1.25%, and the press conference follows at 05:30 UTC.
Shortly before, on Thursday at 23:30 UTC, Tokyo core CPI is forecast at 2.6% year on year, after 2.7%. Tokyo data is often seen as an early signal for national inflation in Japan. These events concern the yen and USD/JPY.
Read alsoEuropean Central Bank holds rates at 2.65% as energy prices push inflation higherCanada and New Zealand: forecasts point to rate increases
On Wednesday 28 October at 01:00 UTC, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is forecast to raise its official cash rate to 3.00%, from 2.75%, with the press conference at 02:00 UTC. Later that day, at 13:45 UTC, the Bank of Canada is forecast to lift its overnight rate to 2.50%, from 2.25%, alongside its Monetary Policy Report. Its press conference starts at 14:30 UTC.
These are forecasts, not decisions, and the outcome may differ. Canada also publishes monthly GDP on Friday at 12:30 UTC, forecast at 0.2%, after 0.0%. These events concern the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, including USD/CAD.
Australian inflation and the UK budget
Australia releases its inflation data on Wednesday 28 October at 00:30 UTC, shortly after a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Bullock at 00:15 UTC. Headline CPI is forecast at 4.2% year on year, after 4.0%, and at 0.7% month on month, after 0.4%. The trimmed mean CPI, which removes the largest price swings, is forecast at 0.3% month on month, after 0.2%. These figures concern AUD/USD.
In the UK, the government presents its annual budget and autumn forecast statement on Wednesday at 12:30 UTC. Budget announcements on spending, taxes and borrowing can move the pound and GBP/USD.
Sources: ForexFactory.
