Optencis
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its interest rate decision on 28 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC. The economic calendar forecast is for the federal funds rate to stay at 4.00%, its current level. The press conference follows at 18:30 UTC, and key US growth and inflation data arrive the next morning.
The decision expected
The federal funds rate is the Fed's main policy rate, the interest rate it targets for overnight lending between banks. It currently stands at 4.00%. The calendar forecast is also 4.00%, so the expected outcome is no change. A forecast is an expectation, not a fact. A different decision would surprise markets, and surprises usually cause larger price moves than outcomes that match the forecast.
What the Fed published recently
The most useful recent release for this meeting is the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in September, published in early October. The FOMC is the group within the Fed that votes on interest rates. Minutes give a fuller account of the debate behind a decision, and traders often read them for clues about the next steps. The Fed also released minutes of its discount rate meetings and the results of its Survey of Consumer Finances. It also announced supervisory actions, including an enforcement action against American Express and changes to its bank stress tests. These banking items matter for the sector but are separate from the rate decision.
The data that matter for this meeting
Several important US releases come in the days around the decision. Today, the Conference Board publishes its consumer confidence index. On 29 October, the day after the decision, the US releases the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and the core PCE price index. The PCE price index is the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely. Weekly jobless claims and the Employment Cost Index, a measure of labour costs, follow later in the week. Because GDP and core PCE come out after the meeting, policymakers will not see these exact figures before deciding. Markets may still react to them as a test of whatever message the Fed sends.
Read alsoBank of England preview: Bank Rate forecast at 4.00%, up from 3.75%What to watch on the day
At 18:00 UTC, the Fed publishes its decision and a policy statement. Beyond the rate itself, traders compare the statement's wording with the previous one to spot changes in how the Fed describes growth, jobs and inflation. The statement also shows how each member voted. Dissenting votes can signal debate inside the committee. At 18:30 UTC, the Fed Chair holds a press conference, where answers to reporters' questions can move markets as much as the decision. As a general mechanism, a message seen as leaning towards higher rates for longer tends to support the US dollar. A message seen as opening the door to cuts tends to weigh on it. Volatility often rises around both events.
Sources: ForexFactory, Federal Reserve.
