Optencis
The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its next interest rate decision on 29 October 2026 at 13:15 UTC. The economic calendar forecast is for the main refinancing rate to stay at 2.65%, the same level as now. The meeting comes as surveys point to tighter lending conditions and slower business growth in the euro area.
The decision expected
The main refinancing rate is one of the key interest rates the ECB sets for the 20 countries that use the euro. It currently stands at 2.65%, and the calendar forecast is for no change at this meeting. A forecast is only an expectation, not a fact: the decision itself is what counts. When a central bank holds rates as expected, attention usually turns to what it says about the future, because that guidance can move the euro and European stock indices as much as the decision.
What the ECB said and published recently
In the weeks before the meeting, the ECB published several surveys that feed into its view of the economy. Its Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises, released on 26 October, said lending conditions for companies tightened. The October euro area bank lending survey followed on 27 October, and the Consumer Expectations Survey for September came out on 23 October. Policymakers were also active. President Christine Lagarde delivered a statement to the International Monetary and Financial Committee on 17 October. Executive Board member Piero Cipollone gave an interview to Milano Finanza on 24 October, chief economist Philip R. Lane spoke on euro liquidity lines and on artificial intelligence in Europe, and Frank Elderson gave several speeches and interviews on resilience and climate risks.
The data that matter for this meeting
Recent activity data show a slowdown. As we reported, the euro area flash PMI slipped to 51.9 in October, the slowest pace of growth in four months, with France falling into contraction and Germany slowing. A PMI above 50 means activity is still growing, but by less. Tighter lending conditions can also weigh on investment, which is one of the channels through which interest rates affect the economy. Inflation data stay central too: the day after the meeting, Germany publishes its preliminary consumer price index and its first estimate of third-quarter GDP.
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The decision and the monetary policy statement come out at 13:15 UTC on 29 October. The statement explains the decision and how the ECB sees inflation and growth. Lagarde then holds a press conference, where her answers to journalists can show how united the Governing Council is and whether it sees reasons to change rates at later meetings. The ECB does not publish a formal vote count, so traders often look for hints about the debate in her comments. Price swings in the euro can be sharp around these moments, so we remind readers to manage the amount invested carefully.
Sources: ForexFactory, European Central Bank.
