Bank of Canada preview: overnight rate forecast at 2.50%, up from 2.25%
Bank of CanadaInterest ratesUSD/CAD
The Bank of Canada decides on rates on 28 October 2026 at 13:45 UTC. The calendar forecast is 2.50%, above the current 2.25%.
Optencis Newsroom27 Oct 20262 min read
The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 13:45 UTC. The economic calendar forecast puts the overnight rate at 2.50%, above its current level of 2.25%. This is an expectation, not a result: the decision itself will only be known when the bank publishes its statement.
The decision expected
The overnight rate is the bank's policy rate, the interest rate it sets to steer borrowing costs in Canada. It currently stands at 2.25%, and the calendar forecast is 2.50%. If the forecast is right, it would mean an increase in the rate at this meeting. Forecasts can be wrong, so we treat this figure as the market's working assumption, not a done deal.
What the bank has said recently
Our calendar data does not list any new Bank of Canada publications ahead of this meeting. That makes the statement on decision day the main source of fresh guidance. As a general rule, central banks raise rates when they want to cool inflation, and higher rates tend to support a currency because they make deposits in it more rewarding. That is why the Canadian dollar, and pairs such as USD/CAD, often react around BoC decisions.
The data that matter for this meeting
The bank's main job is to keep inflation close to its target while watching growth and jobs. This week also brings Canada's monthly GDP figure on 30 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC, two days after the decision. That release will not shape this meeting, but it will show how the economy was doing and may colour how traders read the bank's message afterwards.
First comes the decision and the policy statement at 13:45 UTC. Beyond the rate itself, the wording matters: any hint about future moves can count as much as the decision. The press conference follows at 14:30 UTC, when officials explain their reasoning and answer questions. Unlike some central banks, the Bank of Canada does not publish a vote split, because its Governing Council decides by consensus, so the tone of the statement and the press conference is the main signal. Price moves can be fast and sharp around these times.
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