Netflix sees Q4 sales of $13.4 billion, below estimates, as ad revenue lags plan

Netflix expects sales of $13.4 billion in the last three months of 2026, a figure below what analysts had pencilled in, the streaming company said on 20 October 2026. It pointed to its advertising business, which it now sees bringing in roughly $300 million less than planned. Third-quarter sales of $12.9 billion matched expectations, according to Bloomberg.

What happened

Netflix published its third-quarter results on 20 October 2026, after the close of US trading. Bloomberg reported that profit for the quarter came in above analyst forecasts, while sales of $12.9 billion landed in line with expectations. The weaker part of the update was the outlook. The company's guidance for the fourth quarter, its own forecast of upcoming sales, came in at $13.4 billion, under analyst estimates.

The figures

The forecast implies sales growth of 11.5% for the fourth quarter of 2026. In the same quarter of 2025, growth stood at 17.6%. If the projection holds, it would be the fourth quarter in a row in which the growth rate eases. Netflix linked the softer outlook to advertising, which it now expects to deliver about $300 million less than it had originally planned.

1. 1Ad revenue shortfallAbout $300 million below plan
2. 2Lower Q4 forecast$13.4 billion, below estimates
3. 3Slower growth rate11.5% projected, from 17.6%

Why it matters

Investors often pay as much attention to guidance as to past results, because share prices tend to reflect expectations about future growth. A quarter that meets or beats forecasts can still be overshadowed by a weaker outlook. Advertising has been one of the newer revenue sources for Netflix, so a shortfall there draws attention to how quickly that business is developing. Bloomberg noted that the projection could add to existing worries among investors about the company's momentum.

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Why traders watch it

Netflix is one of the large technology and media companies listed on the Nasdaq, so its results are followed closely by traders of US stock indices as well as by holders of the shares. Earnings released after the US close can lead to sharp moves when trading resumes, as markets digest both the numbers and the outlook. We do not know how the shares or the wider market will react, and moves after earnings can go either way.

Sources: Bloomberg.