US consumer and producer prices bracket the week, with UK growth data on Thursday and speeches from Bailey, Waller and Lagarde.
Optencis Newsroom8 Nov 20263 min read
This week is mainly about US inflation, with consumer prices on Tuesday and producer prices on Friday. In between, the UK publishes its first estimate of quarterly growth on Thursday, while the heads of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are both scheduled to speak.
US consumer prices on Tuesday
The US consumer price index (CPI), which tracks the prices households pay for goods and services, is released on Tuesday 10 November at 13:30 UTC. The headline figure is forecast at 0.3% month on month, after 0.6% in the previous reading. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected at 0.2%, after 0.3%.
Inflation data shape expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its policy rate, the interest rate it sets. A gap between the actual figures and the forecasts can move the US dollar and indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, as well as pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Earlier that day, at 09:00 UTC, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Waller is due to speak.
UK growth figures on Thursday
UK gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of goods and services the economy produces, is published on Thursday 12 November at 07:00 UTC. The monthly reading is forecast at 0.0%, after 0.1% previously. The preliminary estimate for the quarter is expected to show growth of 0.7% quarter on quarter, up from 0.5%.
Growth data feed into the debate on Bank of England (BoE) policy, so the release is followed closely by traders of the British pound, notably GBP/USD. BoE Governor Bailey speaks earlier in the week, on Monday 9 November at 17:25 UTC.
US producer prices close the week
The US producer price index (PPI), which measures the prices businesses receive for what they produce, is due on Friday 13 November at 13:30 UTC. Headline PPI is forecast at 0.4% month on month, after 1.3% previously. Core PPI is expected at 0.3%, after 0.7%.
Producer prices are often seen as an early signal for consumer inflation, because higher business costs can be passed on to shoppers. Coming three days after CPI, the release gives a second inflation reading for the week, relevant to the US dollar and US stock indices.
Weekly US unemployment claims, the number of people filing for jobless benefits for the first time, are published on Thursday at 13:30 UTC. The forecast is 194K, after 189K the week before. The figure offers a quick weekly snapshot of the US labour market.
Later on Thursday, at 19:30 UTC, European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde is scheduled to speak. Remarks from central bank leaders can change expectations for interest rates, which is why traders of the euro and EUR/USD tend to follow them.
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